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Market Brief: Pakistan’s ‘Missing Middle’ Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) Requirement

The current air defence work was mostly informed by the assumptions decision-makers held following the 2019 skirmish. However, the dynamics of the 2025 conflict will change these assumptions across two key areas: (1) high-volume, low-flying slow threats and a (2) potential risk from large-scale supersonic cruise missile and ballistic missile strikes.

Executive Summary

The May 2025 conflict served as a critical test for Pakistan’s modernized air defences. Its outcomes against drone swarms and the implicit risk of massed BrahMos strikes will likely drive a new phase of capability assessment.

Quwa’s core finding identifies a significant and underserved capability gap – the ‘Missing Middle’ – in Pakistan’s layered defences, creating both an immediate and addressable market for modern short-to-medium-range air defence systems (SHORAD/MRAD).

Beyond this primary opportunity, the brief details growing requirements for:

  • Advanced Very Short-Range Air Defence (V-SHORAD) with C-UAS capabilities.
  • Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) and integrated hard/soft-kill solutions.
  • Next-generation Electronic Warfare (EW) components.

Crucially, this brief moves beyond solely technical requirements to deliver actionable commercial intelligence.

It assesses the primary market-entry barriers – including fiscal constraints, domestic programs, and entrenched foreign competition – and provides concrete strategies for positioning your solution to win.

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Bilal Khan

Bilal Khan

Founder of Quwa, Bilal has been researching Pakistani defence industry and security issues for over 15 years. His work has been cited by Pakistan's National Defence University (NDU), the Council of Foreign Relations, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Centre of Airpower Studies and many others. He has a Hons. B.A in Political Science and Masters of Interntional Public Policy from Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.

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