Pakistan Market Intelligence

Market Brief: Pakistan’s ‘Missing Middle’ Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) Requirement Plus Pro

The current air defence work was mostly informed by the assumptions decision-makers held following the 2019 skirmish. However, the dynamics of the 2025 conflict will change these assumptions across two key areas: (1) high-volume, low-flying slow threats and a (2) potential risk from large-scale supersonic cruise missile and ballistic missile strikes.

By Bilal Khan · · 13 min read

Executive Summary

The May 2025 conflict served as a critical test for Pakistan’s modernized air defences. Its outcomes against drone swarms and the implicit risk of massed BrahMos strikes will likely drive a new phase of capability assessment.

Quwa’s core finding identifies a significant and underserved capability gap – the ‘Missing Middle’ – in Pakistan’s layered defences, creating both an immediate and addressable market for modern short-to-medium-range air defence systems (SHORAD/MRAD).

Beyond this primary opportunity, the brief details growing requirements for:

  • Advanced Very Short-Range Air Defence (V-SHORAD) with C-UAS capabilities.
  • Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) and integrated hard/soft-kill solutions.
  • Next-generation Electronic Warfare (EW) components.

Crucially, this brief moves beyond solely technical requirements to deliver actionable commercial intelligence.

It assesses the primary market-entry barriers – including fiscal constraints, domestic programs, and entrenched foreign competition – and provides concrete strategies for positioning your solution to win.

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Present State

Pre-2019 Air Defence Investment

Before 2019, Pakistan’s land-based integrated air defence system (IADS) was primarily oriented towards providing point-defence coverage of key installations. Hence, the bulk of the Pakistani military tri-services’ investments consisted of short-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, such as the Thales Crotale or its Chinese-built counterparts.

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