US Unfreezes Aid for Monitoring Pakistan’s F-16s Plus

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The U.S. State Department’s recent decision to exempt $397 million in security assistance from a broader aid freeze marks the latest turn in the decades-long saga of Pakistan’s F-16 program.

This funding seeks to specifically support the Technical Security Team (TST), a contingent of contractors stationed in Pakistan to monitor F-16 usage under strict end-use monitoring rules, which seem to require the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) to only use the F-16s, especially the newer F-16C/D Block-52 fighters, for counterinsurgency (COIN) and counter-terrorism (CT) operations.

From a technical standpoint, the PAF can merge the air-to-air and air-to-surface roles of the F-16A/B MLU and Mirage ROSE, respectively, into one platform. Yes, the J-35 would be costly, and the PAF will not field it in as large numbers as its older platforms. However, the PAF would likely employ a manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) approach involving unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) and smart munitions.

The irony in this scenario is that in its bid to control the PAF’s reach and capabilities via the F-16, the U.S. may have steered the PAF into the other direction. Instead, the PAF could deploy the offensive capabilities the U.S. wanted to prevent it from gaining and, more crucially, be immune to U.S. pressure, at least from a technical support or technology access standpoint.

When viewing the history of U.S. arms transfers to Pakistan, one notices that Washington generally wants Islamabad to secure its western borders. In the Cold War, this focus involved providing Islamabad enough arms to fortify itself against the Soviet Union. Following 9/11, this focus shifted to COIN and CT, but again, in the context of securing Pakistan’s borders with Afghanistan.

Thus, the U.S. would not transfer or sell anything that exceeds the scope of the Western border, such as a larger strike-capable fighter, like the F-15, for example. Moreover, it would take punitive action against the Pakistani military if it used American-supplied arms in a conflict against India, often through sanctions, as shown during and shortly after the 1965 War.