On 29 December 2021, Pakistan’s Minister of Interior, Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed, revealed that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) will induct J-10 fighter aircraft from China. Ahmed said that the PAF will induct the aircraft by 23 March 2022, i.e., in time for the country’s annual national day parade.
The PAF has yet to comment on the matter. However, multiple observers following the PAF’s procurement activities have confirmed that the PAF will acquire the J-10CE, with deliveries slated to start in 2022.
Not a Surprise: Off-the-Shelf Fighters Were Always on the Radar
The PAF was seeking an off-the-shelf fighter to complement its fleet modernization strategy since at least 2016. Initially, the PAF had sought additional F-16C/D Block-52+ so as to expand its fleet of 18 aircraft. But the deal fell through over the U.S.’ refusal to let Pakistan use Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to help fund the acquisition. The F-16 contract – and, in all likelihood, the PAF’s hope for additional F-16s in general – fell through, thus prompting the PAF to seek alternatives.
In 2017, then PAF Chief of Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman, said, “Pakistan definitely has to induct new aircraft. We have both Chinese and Russian options.” This statement may have indicated the PAF was choosing between the J-10CE and, potentially, the Su-35.
However, a Russian fighter was unlikely for many reasons. First, Moscow is reluctant to sell big-ticket arms to Pakistan out of fear of losing its much larger market in India. Second, the Su-35 at the time was offered as a tightly integrated package. The PAF likely wanted several key modifications that Russia was unwilling or unable to cost-effectively support. Russia generally preferred countries to buy the Su-35 as configured. Third, acquiring the Su-35 would have forced the PAF to add an entirely new operating stack (i.e., training, maintenance, logistics, weapons, interoperability processes, etc). This would have been time-consuming and, above all, very costly. The PAF likely preferred sticking to familiar American and Chinese systems.
With the F-16 off the table, the only realistic off-the-shelf fighter solution was the J-10CE. The J-10CE fits within the PAF’s fiscal constraints and comes from a willing supplier. In fact, China is likely offering a type of credit or financing arrangement to help Pakistan pay for the fighters.
Ultimately, the PAF likely greenlit the J-10CE purchase several years ago. Interestingly, the previous PAF CAS, ACM Mujahid Anwar Khan, had hinted towards an off-the-shelf fighter in 2020. In an interview, ACM Khan said, “We have to be aware of modern technologies, and if the acquisition of a new fighter fits into our doctrine then we will try to acquire it. The balance has to be maintained.”
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