The Real Threat to Pakistan’s National Security – Part 1 Plus

Author Profile: Syed Aseem Ul Islam is PhD candidate at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA, specializing in adaptive and model-predictive flight control systems. He received his bachelor’s degree in aerospace engineering from the Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad, and his master’s degree in flight dynamics and control from the University of Michigan.

Due to being located at the crossroads of three key regions (South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East), Pakistan has ‘geostrategic importance.’ However, that ‘importance’ has been both a blessing and a curse for Pakistan. It is no secret that Pakistan resides in a dangerous neighborhood, nor is it a surprise that the country’s defence requirements take priority over other spending needs. These are not unique issues.

Unfortunately, one (of many) side effects of seeing its surroundings as threats is a counterproductive, but at times necessary, paranoia. As a result, Pakistan sees many “threats to national security” – some real, but many imagined. When the ‘imagined’ threats clog the perspectives of decision-makers and the public, the genuine threats – e.g., water insecurity and struggling economy – slip through the cracks. Fortunately, water and the economy are entering the mainstream discourse, but the nation still needs to unearth more genuine threats. This article aims to uncover one more – the decline of Pakistan’s defence R&D capability.

Pakistan’s territorial security is contingent on its ability to maintain both strategic (i.e., nuclear) as well as conventional arms parity with India. Despite being several times smaller in India in terms of its economic output, population, and (not to be ignored) inherited industry base from partition, Pakistan has done quite well thus far through careful planning, conscientious use of limited funding, and force-multiplier systems. However, with India’s now burgeoning economic might and current geostrategic value (as assistance for the United States in containing China), the parity gap between Islamabad and New Delhi is widening.

For Pakistan, some constraints are obvious – e.g., a struggling economy – but others are more to do with the general misuse of existing resources due to legacy processes and a poor understanding of optimal and efficient alternatives. This constraint is glaringly obvious to this familiar with Pakistan’s defence industry. Thus, Pakistan must examine its capabilities and, in turn, chart a future path that would allow it to “loose the fat” and become the leanest it can be so that it can counter India’s growing edge.