On 06 May 2020, the RAND Corporation published an article outlining several challenges many countries face in their efforts to deploy long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.[1] The main point of the piece is that the upfront cost of long-range SAMs, such as the S-400, are not indicative of the true cost required to exact enough value out of those systems. Rather, to effectively use long-range SAMs, the end-user must invest in different radar types to cover blind spots, build a secure, high-speed information exchange (i.e., data link) system to share target tracking data, and fine-tune training and processes to eliminate errors.[2]
In other words, the end-user must acquire and acclimate to an eco-system of high-cost assets before even contemplating the induction of a long-range SAM. Otherwise, the end-user will either fail to use the long-range SAM effectively, or worse, risk losing it to enemy fire. In terms of the latter, for example, the enemy can saturate an air defence battery with a large number of cruise missiles.[3] In fact, this is one of the ways Pakistan can potentially work to counteract India’s S-400, and wider air defence network in general.
However, on the other end of the spectrum, one can also argue that Pakistan also built the eco-system it would need to one day employ its own long-range SAM. Indeed, there have also been reports of Pakistan expressing interest in such a system. In 2018, a Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP) official told Russian News Agency TASS that the armed forces were studying the feasibility of procuring three or four FD-2000 batteries from China.[4] But Pakistan’s interest in the FD-2000 dates back to the early 2000s, and though it has not followed through on it yet, in the years since it built an eco-system to fully leverage it.
Project Vision: Eliminating Blind Spots, Giving Situational Awareness to All
In 1999, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) started ‘Project Vision,’ an initiative aimed at building one situational awareness picture using land, sea, and air-based assets.
The single ‘Recognized Air and Maritime Picture (RAMP)’ leverages the PAF’s airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft and the army and navy’s land-based radars. The RAMP offers 24/7 coverage of both Pakistani and foreign territory, with the latter reaching some several hundred miles across Pakistan’s borders on both land and sea. The latter varies based on the location of the ship.[5]
In terms of employing a long-range SAM, the RAMP offers several benefits.
First, one of the challenges with deploying a long-range SAM, at least on its own (i.e., without a supporting eco-system of other sensors), is that the Earth’s curvature causes coverage blind spots. An enemy can use these blind spots to stage ground-based attacks and/or low-flying aircraft (e.g., drones) against the SAM.
However, by pooling AEW&C and different surface radars alike, the RAMP provides both over-the-horizon and low-altitude coverage via connectivity to AEW&C and gap filler radars. Pakistan build a relatively large AEW&C fleet through its six Erieye and four Karakorum Eagle systems, and acquired new gap filler radars from China and other sources. Thus, the RAMP eliminates those gaps by allowing the end-user to see the feeds from each segment, i.e., by air (AEW&C), long-range and high-altitude (AN/TPS-77), and a multitude of low-altitude sensors (YLC-18A, SMART-S Mk2, etc).
Second, to even deploy a system such as RAMP, Pakistan would have needed a network built on data link connectivity between sensors. The Pakistan Navy (PN) uses the Naval Information Exchange System (NIXS) to disseminate its combined sensor feed. Thus, a similar system must exist in use with the PAF and Army to enable their respective units to see RAMP (and the PN can use the NIXS). It is worth noting that NIXS is built on a nationwide communications infrastructure (RedLine), so the PN can use it from any location in the country.[6] It would not be surprising if the PAF and Army are using a system based on RedLine.
Third, the training and processes to eliminate human error and boost success-rates can come from short-and-medium-range SAMs, of which Pakistan operates several types, namely the Spada 2000-Plus and LY-80. The PAF and Army are building experience using SAMs in a network-enabled environment, and the PN will join them soon through the LY-80N-equipped Type 054A/P frigate and, potentially, MILGEM. It will be worth seeing if Pakistan undertakes more air defence exercises in the future to fine-tune its training and processes, and to better understand or mitigate potential threats.
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