As per Dawn News, the Pakistan Navy’s (PN) Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) – Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi – stated that the PN was seeking a new, jet-powered maritime patrol aircraft (MPA).[1]
The new MPA is to replace the PN’s aging Lockheed Martin P-3C Orion MPAs, which it acquired in two batches (in the 1990s and late 2000s/early 2010s) from the US. However, the PN lost two of its planes in 2011 due to a terrorist attack on PNS Mehran. Based on available public data, that would leave the PN’s P-3C fleet at seven aircraft, but this is not an official figure.
In July, the PN also inducted the first of two ATR-72s converted into MPAs. It appears that these are slotted to replace the PN’s aging F-27s. However, it is now clear that the PN is not intending to replace its P-3Cs with the ATR-72; rather, a different – and jet-powered – system is being sought.
Speaking to media (via Dawn News), Adm. Abbasi stated that the PN is “ready to acquire them (new MPAs) from any source, including the US.”[2] In terms of the latter, the CNS appears to be referring to the Boeing P-8I Poseidon, a variant of which is also in use by the Indian Navy.
However, given Pakistan’s tenuous relationship with the US and, not least, its financial limitations, the P-8I may be untenable. Granted, a long-term loan could (in theory) factor into the situation, but even if the PN succeeds in procuring the P-8I, it could deal with difficult end-user requirements (e.g. US government monitoring, just as the Pakistan Air Force had endured with its F-16 Block-52+ purchase).
In terms of options available today, the only jet-powered MPA the PN could plausibly pursue in the near-term is the Swordfish offered by the Swedish defence giant Saab. Not only is it an available package, but the PN should not have difficulty procuring most of its subsystems.
Why Does Pakistan Want to Replace the P-3C?
Despite its age, the P-3C provides the PN with range and payload that it cannot readily get from elsewhere (except for the US, but the P-8 Poseidon is unlikely to be available). The P-3C has a payload of 9,000 kg as well as range and mission radius (with three hours on-station) of 3,835 km and 2,494 km, respectively.[3] However, the P-3C’s payload is distributed across 10 external hardpoints and an internal bomb-bay; this has made for markedly strong anti-ship warfare (AShW) and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities.
Thus, a transition a near-term option such as the Bombardier-based Saab Swordfish would require trade-offs between the loss of physical capacity in-exchange for newer, next-generation systems. The fact that the PN is apparently seeking a new platform indicates that there is a limit to how long it can fly the P-3C. Otherwise, the P-3C is an inherently strong package that, in the absence of an aging (and irrecoverable or non-renewable airframe) and dwindling pool of spare parts, simply works.
The challenge with legacy aircraft, including ones that have seen significant manufacturing runs and wide adoption as the P-3C, is that the capacity to support them is increasingly limited. For the PN, it is difficult to keep securing spare parts (especially as there are other P-3C operators competing for those parts) and to sustain the platform for the long-term. The PN is reaching a point where to sustain an effective AShW and ASW MPA fleet, it will need a next-generation platform.
However, the market for next-generation, long-range MPAs is dominated by the P-8 Poseidon. Granted, the PN has hinted towards it, but a combination of high upfront costs, a tenuous relationship with the US and sensitive technology (which Washington will want to guard against potential Chinese exposure) will thwart a potential P-8 purchase. Besides conceptual ideas (such as an Airbus A319-based MPA), the only jet-powered MPA option that is ready for production today is the Global 6000-based Swordfish.
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