On 16 January 2021, the Indian Army (IA) showcased a newly acquired drone swarming capability during its annual parade. Using 75 locally developed drones, the IA demonstrated multiple mission applications, such as anti-armour attacks, ground strikes, humanitarian and disaster relief, and logistics support.[1]
The IA is developing its drone swarming capability in partnership with a private sector player, NewSpace Research and Technologies. In the long-run, India intends to build the capacity to deploy 1,000 drones in a swarming formation at the same time. Its current capability allows it to strike at targets 100 km away.
However, India’s drone ambitions are far-reaching. In fact, it even intends to build an air-launched swarm capability under the Combat Air Teaming Systems (CATS) initiative. One CATS project, for example, would see the Indian Air Force (IAF) configure its Jaguar strike aircraft with 24 loitering munition-type drones.
It seems that India will integrate drone swarming to its air and land-based capabilities. The latter can result in vehicle-based tube-launchers armed with loitering munitions. In turn, India can invest in boosting the range of its loitering munitions and quadcopter drones. It could even look at using them in additional ways – e.g., electronic countermeasures (ECM) jamming and top-attack anti-armour strikes, among others.
Drone swarming will be a significant addition to India’s capabilities. Not only is the capability itself a clear sign of India maturing its drone technologies, but it could impact Pakistan.
Why Drone Swarms Are a Threat to Pakistan
Drone swarming introduces an asymmetrical element to conventional warfare. These aircraft are small in size, incredibly low-cost and, most importantly, disposable. Disposability frees the end-user to use these drones in high-risk scenarios without worrying about the loss of its own operators. The main way the end-user measures the success of these drones is whether they hit their targets. The only constraint is the cost of sustaining the numbers necessary to continually deploy drone swarms.
The capability also opens another way for India to undertake area-wide attacks. Instead of strictly relying on the Sensor-Fuzed Weapon (which can scatter guided sub-munitions over an area and strike individual armoured vehicles), for example, India can use swarms of loitering munitions to carryout anti-armour operations. In fact, it can deploy these drones from both land and air. In addition, because of the portable nature of the drones, it can disperse and station this capability across many units.
If India scales the application of drone swarms, it can use them in any scenario provided the drones have enough range to reach the target area. These systems will certainly be a threat to Pakistan’s built-up areas, such as its fixed positions across the Line-of-Control (LoC), or forward deployed units. In some situations, these drone swarms may even be threat to main operating bases and permanent positions.
Finally, the means to reliably stop drone swarms are not in place. Lockheed Martin is working to a directed energy weapon-based weapon, but Pakistan does not have anything comparable to that in its acquisition pipeline in the foreseeable future. There may be a solution in the form of various short-range air defence (SHORAD) systems, such as counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) and anti-air guns (AAG) with air-burst ammunitions. However, the effectiveness of these systems against drone swarms is questionable – and if they do work to an extent, deploying them at a wide scale is cost-prohibitive.
Mirroring India is the Only Viable Solution
For Pakistan, the only way to reliably counter India’s drone swarm capability is to have a similar solution. In fact, if Pakistan acknowledges the magnitude of the threat, it will seek solutions from China and Turkey.
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