In its response to the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) attempted air strikes on Balakot, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) response – designated “Swift Retort” – centered on the delivery of long-range situational awareness, long-range air-to-air missile (LRAAM) deployment, electronic countermeasures (ECM), and stand-off weapon (SOW) strikes. For the PAF, preserving – and ultimately, upgrading — these four capabilities are critical for it to demonstrate a conventional deterrence stature. For Pakistan to deter future Balakot-type intrusions in the future, establishing conventional deterrence – especially through air power – is vital.
The PAF certainly has a long-term roadmap for enhancing the aforementioned domains. For example, the PAF wants a fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA). It is hoping for a twin-engine design to ensure that it can deploy heavy payloads at long ranges. The intended outcome is to both replace the Mirage III/5 in the strike role, and greatly improve upon the offensive value currently provided by the Mirages. However, the FGFA is a long-term endeavour. The PAF stated it is looking at a maiden test flight in 2028, which in Quwa’s earlier assessment would be impossible unless Pakistan is rolling its FGFA efforts with those of Turkey or China. In any case, the FGFA will not factor into the PAF’s plans until sometime in the 2030s.
Thus, the PAF still has to look at how to improve its “first shoot” air-to-air capability, SOW inventory, long-range situational awareness, and ECM in the short-term. In this respect, the PAF leadership had signalled an interest in buying another fighter type off-the-shelf. However, the most impactful improvements would occur at a fleet-wide level, i.e., through the JF-17, the PAF’s workhorse multi-role fighter. The PAF is clearly working towards improving the capabilities of its JF-17 fleet across the four key domains.
Long-Range Air-to-Air Capability
With the forthcoming JF-17 Block-III, the PAF is introducing the KLJ-7A active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radar to its fleet. The KLJ-7A reportedly offers a maximum range of 170 km against current fighter-sized targets, which may translate to a radar cross-section (RCS) of 5m2.[1] The PAF will certainly pursue a new LRAAM to take advantage of the range improvement over the current KLJ-7V2. However, by setting up an assembly line to produce the KLJ-7A domestically, it seems that the PAF is also planning to retrofit its older Block-II and possibly Block-I fighters with the AESA radar.[2]
Currently, the PAF has 30 Block-IIIs on order. However, it also ordered 26 dual-seat JF-17Bs and outlined that it will upgrade those fighters with the KLJ-7A as well. If the PAF commits to the full 50-aircraft Block-III order, it could potentially build a fleet of up to 188 (i.e., Block-I, Block-II, Block-III and B) AESA-equipped fighters. In the short-term, the PAF could be aiming to maintain relative parity with the IAF in terms of at least having as many AESA radar-equipped fighters in its fleet. Upgrading the JF-17s would be the shortest and cost-effective avenue for achieving that outcome. If the PAF opts for additional JF-17s, this number could cross 200 by 2030, which is a relatively sizable force.
The PAF did not disclose the new LRAAM it will procure. However, a PAF had confirmed to Quwa in 2018 that the JF-17 Block-III would get a new longer-ranged LRAAM.
In addition to a longer-ranged air-to-air capability, the KLJ-7A’s 1,000+ transmit/receive modules (TRM) also provide it with improved electronic-counter-countermeasures (ECCM) capability. In practical terms, the KLJ-7A can function better against radar jammers compared to the KLJ-7V2, thus allowing the JF-17 to operate in contested air environments with sophisticated electronic threats. However, shielding the JF-17 from ECM is only one part of the equation, the PAF should also make the JF-17 into an ECM asset as well.
Fleet-Wide ECM Deployment
Onboard the JF-17, ECM deployment would likely emerge in two forms depending on the specific aircraft variant. The Block-III (and presumably the JF-17B) was slated to have integrated ECM.
Given that the PAF acquired electronic warfare (EW) equipment from Spain’s Indra, there is a chance that the ECM equipment is coming from a Western source. In fact, there are numerous ECM options available from the West that are more immune to U.S trade controls, such as the International Traffic in Arms Regulations ITAR (ITAR). However, the PAF did not disclose any specific information about procurement.
That said, the contemporary standard would be to have a digital radio frequency memory (DRFM)-based system. It would allow the Block-III/JF-17B to interfere with enemy radars for defensive purposes (i.e., thwart enemy targeting and, potentially, air-to-air engagement).
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