Analysis: The Case for Pakistan Procuring the FC-31 Gyrfalcon Plus

Prologue

The following is an analysis examining if the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) FC-31 Gyrfalcon, an export-oriented ‘fifth-generation’ fighter platform, is a suitable fit for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). This is an extension of a piece written on Quwa (linked at the end of the article) – Discussion: Could the FC-31 factor into Pakistan’s Next-Gen Fighter Plans? – but differs significantly thanks to new information given to the public by the PAF leadership as well as a different analytical approach. Unlike the Discussion piece, I opted to analyze the FC-31 in direct context of the PAF’s present force organization (e.g. looking at what specific platforms the PAF could look to replace), the actual threats faced by the PAF today and future, and tried to identify how the PAF is viewing the FGF concept as a whole and seeing how the FC-31 can fit.

Project Azm: Pakistan’s FGF

Officially, the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) fifth-generation fighter (FGF) program is being executed under ‘Project Azm’ (resolve). Under the PAF’s long-term plan, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) Kamra has been entrusted to manufacture a FGF as well as active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radars. In the inaugural announcement of Project Azm, the PAF Chief of Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman stated, “[the] initiative of Project Azam was thus encouraged, which is the designing of the 5th-generation fighter aircraft.”[1] Ostensibly entrusted with Project Azm is the Aviation Design Institute (AvDI) at PAC Kamra, which – as per the Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP) – was established to “spearhead design and development activity … [of] state of the art next generation (sic) aerospace vehicles.” Recently on 07 December 2017, ACM Sohail Aman announced that “Pakistan is engaged with Chinese experts in manufacturing the next generation aircraft,” adding, “it will take five years to initiate the production.”

The PAF CAS did not mention a specific platform, be it the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) FC-31 or otherwise. However, ACM Sohail Aman is known for heavily – and overtly – emphasizing aspects such as “indigenous development” and independence from foreign suppliers. In an April 2017 interview with Bol Narratives, ACM Aman stated: “We are integrating our technology with friendly countries, including Turkey. We are thinking of producing the next-generation aircraft by pooling resources with them. For this, the basic framework and agreements have been made,” adding, “We are also collaborating with Turkey for developing a next generation aircraft.”[2] Again, the CAS did not mention a specific platform, though it should be noted that the Turkish Undersecretariat of Defence Industries (SSM) invited Pakistan to participate in the TFX, though to what extent and for what purpose is unclear.[3] That said, in May 2017 British aviation journalist Alan Warnes, a person in-contact with the PAF CAS, said the TFX, “in near future … likely to figure in PAF”s new generation fighter aircraft requirement.”[4]

However, in neither scenario (TFX or FC-31) did the PAF itself explicitly state its intended avenue. With its overt call for ‘indigenous design’ in mind, there are several plausible outcomes. First, procuring the FC-31 off-the-shelf with a deep level of transfer-of-technology to undertake local manufacturing, including full access to electronic subsystems – especially AESA radar – for unencumbered integration choices. Second, partnering with Turkish Aerospace Industries on the TFX – or specific TFX inputs (such as radar and avionics) –  in-exchange for the aforementioned gains. Third, undertaking an original design with Chinese assistance, which could enable Pakistan to own most of the resulting design (commensurate with and proportional to Pakistan’s funding contribution). Each one of those scenarios could plausibly fit with the CAS’ statements, it will ultimately be time that will provide confirmation.

Despite the ambiguity of the FGF route, the PAF is explicit in establishing the FGF as vital for its long-term requirements. Speaking to Bol Narratives, ACM Aman stated, “However, in future – in the next 10 years down the line – if we don’t induct fifth-generation aircraft, then the disparity will increase.”[5] For the PAF, the core feature-set of the FGF – e.g. AESA radar, low radar-cross section (RCS) design, platform for next-generation electronic warfare (EW) and electronic countermeasures (ECM) and, potentially, payload and range increase – would enable it to close the qualitative gaps it has with India and imbue the PAF with key operational capabilities. In fact, relative to the PAF’s current fleet, an FGF such as the FC-31 would provide (on paper) credible improvement to the PAF’s deep strike and maritime operations forces. Moreover, the CAS’ timeline – i.e. “the next 10 years” – is a time-sensitive requirement for fulfilling in 2027-2030.

Shenyang FC-31 Gyrfalcon

The FC-31 Gyrfalcon is AVIC’s export-oriented FGF program. It is being developed by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC), which is currently the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) source for licensed Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30 Flanker copies. The FC-31 is a twin-engine design meant to be powered by the WS-13A. It is believed to have a target overall payload of 8,000 kg, of which 2,000 kg would be internal, distributed in 10 hardpoints (six external and four internal). The FC-31 has a combat radius of 1,200 km.[6] Internally, the Gyrfalcon is use an AESA radar coupled with an electro-optical targeting system (EOTS) integrated to the nose of the fighter. Conceptually, the EOTS (based on the F-35 Lightning II) is meant to be a multi-purpose solution that can assist with guiding laser and satellite-guided bombs and image intelligence (IMINT)-based reconnaissance. Basically, an integrated advanced targeting pod. In November 2016 (at Air Show China), AVIC also showcased its technology concepts for a next-generation cockpit, which centered on a single-panel multi-functional display and helmet-mounted display and sight (HMD/S) system.

Currently, the FC-31 is undergoing developmental tests through two prototypes. The second prototype was a heavily revised variant incorporating a new forward superstructure and vertical stabilizers. The first FC-31 prototype flew in 2012, with the second prototype taking to the skies in December 2016. AVIC said it was aiming to complete the production model in 2019, bring the platform to initial operating clearance (IOC) by 2022 and then full operating clearance (FOC) by 2025.[7] Provided AVIC fulfills its objectives, then the FC-31 would readily fit within the PAF’s 2027-2030 timeframe. With an ostensibly capable platform nearing availability, it is genuinely difficult to envision an alternative FGF avenue if not for the PAF itself intentionally leaving the door open with its various statements to that effect.

The State of Pakistan’s Current Platforms

The mainstay of the PAF fighter fleet is transitioning to multi-role platforms. The F-16 had started this shift but the bulk of the change is being sustained by the JF-17. As of February 2017, the JF-17 has supplanted all but one Chengdu F-7P unit in the PAF. The remaining F-7P unit is the No. 18 squadron, an operational conversion unit (OCU) equipped with single and dual-seat (FT-7P) fighters for training pilots. While the F-7P is capable of strafing ground targets and releasing general purpose bombs (GPB), it is primarily an air defence/point-defence asset for denying enemy airpower access and control over Pakistani skies. In 2002-2003 the PAF inducted the newer F-7PG (with a double-delta wing-design) to strengthen its point-defence and area-access and area denial (A2/AD) force. The F-7PG will remain in service for the foreseeable future.

The F-16C/D Block-52+ and F-16A/B Block-15 Mid-Life-Update (MLU) are the PAF’s workhorse air-to-air and air-to-ground assets for offensive operations, including offensive counter-air (OCA) operations meant for suppressing enemy airpower (e.g. by attacking enemy air fields and airpower-critical infrastructure). The Block-52+ and MLU are both equipped with the AN/APG-68(v9) radar integrated with the AIM-120C5 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) along with the Link-16 tactical data-link (TDL) and AN/ALQ-211 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suite. On paper, the AN/APG-68(v9) and AIM-120C5 is an effective set, but its utility is fleeting in South Asia thanks to India slotting the Rafale (with the Meteor BVRAAM and RBE2 AESA radar) in its acquisition pipeline. That said, even in the Rafale’s absence, the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) Mirage 2000H – with comparable radar and EW/ECM equipment – is a credible threat to the PAF’s F-16s (and vice-versa). However, while the F-16s can be an effective air-to-air asset, the strike capabilities of the PAF’s F-16s are limited in terms of stand-off range engagement. This is because the PAF has been unable to acquire stand-off weapons (SOW), such as the Joint Stand-off Weapon or Harpoon Block-II anti-ship missile (AShM).