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The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has put the Gulf states under direct military attack for the first time in a generation. For Pakistan, the immediate consequences are being felt, given its 99% dependence on LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE, stranded tankers, grid instability, and an export sector warning of serious damage.
However, the war’s impact on Pakistan’s strategic posture is more nuanced than the energy headlines suggest. The ‘Look West’ thesis, which this author has been developing over the past year, assumed a stable, investing Gulf.
That assumption is now under strain. But the same crisis that destabilizes the Gulf is also exposing the limits of the U.S. security umbrella, and potentially generating demand for exactly the kind of supplementary security partnership Pakistan offers.
The Confidence Gap
The Gulf states did not want this war. Multiple Gulf leaders – from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – warned President Trump in January that strikes on Iran “would have consequences for the wider region in terms of both security and economics that would ultimately impact the United States itself.”
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