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The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has put the Gulf states under direct military attack for the first time in a generation. For Pakistan, the immediate consequences are being felt, given its 99% dependence on LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE, stranded tankers, grid instability, and an export sector warning of serious damage.
However, the war’s impact on Pakistan’s strategic posture is more nuanced than the energy headlines suggest. The ‘Look West’ thesis, which this author has been developing over the past year, assumed a stable, investing Gulf.
That assumption is now under strain. But the same crisis that destabilizes the Gulf is also exposing the limits of the U.S. security umbrella, and potentially generating demand for exactly the kind of supplementary security partnership Pakistan offers.
The Confidence Gap
The Gulf states did not want this war. Multiple Gulf leaders – from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – warned President Trump in January that strikes on Iran “would have consequences for the wider region in terms of both security and economics that would ultimately impact the United States itself.”
Trump initially listened. By the end of February, he proceeded anyway. The GCC states were not given advance notice of Operation Epic Fury, even though it was clear they would be among Iran’s first retaliatory targets.
The result was predictable.
Iranian drones and missiles struck all six GCC states within the first 48 hours.
Fires broke out near luxury hotels in Dubai. Kuwait’s international airport was hit. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery was put out of commission.
Trump himself called the attacks on the Gulf “probably the biggest surprise” of the war, a revealing admission from the commander-in-chief who ordered the strikes.
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