Indian Defence Market Intelligence

India’s 114 Rafale Deal and France’s Leverage Problem Pro

The $36–40 billion deal for 114 Rafale F4s would be the largest single Rafale order in history. But the RFP sits at Step 4 of a 12-step procurement process, and the real negotiation — over source code, ICD access, and indigenization — hasn't started. France's reluctance is structural, not bilateral: the UAE, Germany, and now India have all encountered the same resistance, for the same reasons.

By Bilal Khan · · 15 min read
Silver military fighter jet performing a steep turn with orange afterburners and a white smoke trail against a clear blue sky, mid-air show.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has finalized the Request for Proposal (RFP) for 114 Dassault Rafale F4s (and potentially F5s), and the document is in “the final stages of bureaucratic processing” ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and IAF Chief AP Singh’s visit to France in June 2026.1

Dassault CEO Éric Trappier aims to sign the contract within 2026, and Indian companies are already undergoing training at Dassault Aviation’s facilities in France, with plans for a second assembly line at Hyderabad for Rafale, if the order is placed.23

The deal – estimated at $36–40 billion – would be the largest single Rafale order in history, comprising 22 fly-away aircraft from France and 92 assembled domestically, though some outlets report a split of 18 and 96, suggesting the ratio is still under negotiation.4 Dassault is already ramping toward four aircraft per month to service a backlog of over 220 orders.5

However, while the deal stems from an urgent IAF requirement, the program is still closer to the start of India’s procurement process than its conclusion, and unless the IAF takes a proactive stance in supporting it through that process, the negotiations risk getting ensnared in delays over technology transfer, offsets, and indigenization.

India’s defence procurement follows a multi-stage bureaucratic process, and the RFP – now finalized – sits at approximately Step 4 of a 12-step sequence that must run its full course before a contract can be signed.8

The Services Qualitative Requirements (SQR) have been defined, the Statement of Case (SoC) was submitted to the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in September 2025, and the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), chaired by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, approved the Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) on 12 February 2026 – valid for one year under the ‘Buy and Make (Indian)’ acquisition category.67

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