U.S. Commits to Training Ukrainian Pilots on the F-16
Several months after greenlighting the transfer of third-party F-16s and training from Europe, the U.S. will now directly provide F-16 flight training to Ukrainian pilots. The Biden administration also said that it will closely work with its European allies to ensure Kyiv receives its F-16s as soon as its pilots are ready.
The U.S. training program, which will take place at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona, will run in parallel to the pilot and maintenance training currently programs underway in Europe.
Thus far, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway have pledged to send F-16s from their respective fleets to Ukraine. Denmark has committed to send 19 of its F-16s to Ukraine, while the Norwegian Prime Minister Gahr Støre reportedly said his country will likely supply up to 10 F-16s to Kyiv. Overall, it appears that the U.S. and its Western European allies are aiming to equip Ukraine with at least several F-16 squadrons.
New fighter aircraft have been among Ukraine’s earliest and most pressing requests from the West. Up to this point, the U.S. had been reluctant to provide – or even permit the third-party transfer – of such arms to Ukraine, out of apparent concern of escalating the war with Russia. However, as the war continued, the U.S. and the West have gradually released increasingly sophisticated arms, such as new main battle tanks (MBT), infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), and guided artillery systems. In January 2023, Quwa had concluded that the U.S. was poised to transfer fighter aircraft to Ukraine and, as importantly, it would serve as a key turning point in re-shaping the Ukrainian military along Western lines.
Be it used third-party F-16s or, potentially, new-build aircraft, the transfer of F-16s (and Western multi-role fighter aircraft in general) will not be a token gesture. Just as the West supplemented, rebuilt, and enlarged Ukraine’s land forces into a more Western-style force, it will invest in Ukraine’s airpower. Thus, one should expect Ukraine’s F-16s to come equipped with modern beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM), precision-guided bombs (PGB), and, potentially, stand-off range weapons (SOW).
The challenge, however, is enabling Ukraine to rapidly induct and fully deploy the F-16s. Thus far, it seems that training Ukrainian aircrews for the fighter will take time, with the English language reportedly being a barrier to overcome. U.S. officials believe Ukraine could start fielding the F-16s as early as mid-2024.
However, as it stands today, Russia is experiencing pressure from its war in Ukraine; some analysts expect it could take Russia a decade to recover. With the military capability it currently possesses, Ukraine is also making gains in its ongoing counteroffensive against Russia.
These are important factors. It may take some years for Ukraine to field a capable air force centered on Western jets and, by that point, the war with Russian may be over or, potentially, driven to a stalemate. It is unlikely that the U.S. approved the transfer of F-16s in light of current realities as the development will not materialize and matter until a later stage. Thus, the F-16s are a step for Ukraine’s long-term security – and, potentially, of strategic significance. In other words, the F-16s could be both an immediate response as well as future deterrence play, and that it is just the beginning of Ukraine building serious air power.
Indonesia Commits to Buying Boeing F-15EX Fighters
On August 21, Indonesia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) and aerospace giant Boeing signed a Memorandum-of-Understanding (MoU) committing to a deal for 24 F-15EX fighters for the Indonesian Air Force (Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Udara or TNI-AU).
If finalized, this order would be the second key component of the TNI-AU’s fighter modernization efforts – in 2022, Jakarta ordered 42 Rafales from France’s Dassault. Currently, 24 of the aircraft are in Dassault’s production backlog, with Indonesian pilots also undergoing training in France for the platform.
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