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The third Pakistan Navy (PN) Hangor-class air-independent propulsion (AIP)-equipped submarine was recently launched. Seeing that the lead boat, PNS Hangor, has been in sea trials since April 2024, it appears that the PN will begin inducting its new-generation submarine by either the end of 2025 or towards the start of 2026.
Undoubtedly, inducting all eight boats will significantly enlarge the PN submarine force, especially its AIP-equipped fleet by nearly 4X from 3 to 11 boats, not including induction of AIP-equipped SWATS/mini-submarines, which would increase it further.
However, as half of the Hangor order is being built in KSEW, that complete shift is still years away – potentially extending into the early 2030s. That said, one can expect the relatively rapid induction of the first four boats from China within the next two years. It would double the PN’s AIP-equipped submarine (SSP) fleet fairly rapidly.
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A2/AD is fundamentally a military strategy involving the integrated use of specific platforms, long-range anti-ship missiles (AShM), and sensors to not only prevent an enemy from entering a specified zone, but to disrupt their operations. On first reading, that latter aspect may seem obvious in the sense that if one cannot stop the enemy from entering the zone, then it follows that the defensive party should pivot to preventing the enemy from controlling that zone.
However, there is more to the “area denial” side of the equation than pivoting from prevention to disruption. Rather, “area denial” can imply introducing some measure of disruption within the areas already controlled by one’s adversary – e.g., within their own territorial boundaries or default areas of interest.
Thus, from the PN’s standpoint, A2/AD now likely involves both preventing the IN from entering the Arabian Sea and disrupting IN activity in the Indian Ocean. For the latter, a larger SSP fleet will play a critical role, especially the Hangor-class – i.e., a design directly derived – if not very similar to – the Type 039B, which was designed for long-range, long-endurance operations in open waters.
How the Hangor Submarine Extends the PN’s A2/AD Lines
As noted above, the clearest indication of the PN’s efforts to expand its A2/AD lines into the Indian Ocean is the Hangor-class SSP itself. The growth in the overall submarine fleet size is a key factor as it provides the PN with more boats to leverage. Once this fleet grows to 11 boats, it can provision a greater number of submarines to operate in its littoral sphere and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) than what it has today on one end, and – more importantly – deploy a sizable force to operate farther out.
One detail to this projected fleet size is that it does not include the low-key SWATS program as, despite some disparate mentions by PN officials, its current status is not known. However, it is likely that the SWATS program has largely been kept under wraps, especially when the PN itself treats its submarine arm as its more secretive branch. Therefore, additional AIP-equipped boats could emerge from this program. See: Pakistan proceeds with new miniature submarine program.
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