On 28 May, Pakistan celebrated the 26th anniversary of its Chagai-I and Chagai-II nuclear tests, which it carried out in 1998 in response to India’s Pokhran-II tests. Since becoming a nuclear power, Pakistan’s program has evolved through the inclusion of miniature warheads as well as an expanding line of launch platforms, especially airborne and sea-based systems.
However, the security environment in South Asia has also changed since 1998. At that time, Pakistan’s security leadership may have assumed that the nuclear umbrella would be sufficient enough to thwart an Indian ingression into Pakistani territory. But in 2019, the Indian government ordered the Indian Air Force (IAF) to carry out air strikes across the Line of Control (LoC). The resulting Balakot Incident led to an air skirmish between Pakistan and India, which ended with a confirmed loss of one IAF MiG-21bis and IAF Mi-17 helicopter.
The Balakot Incident showed Pakistan’s security leadership two things:
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