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Is a Loyal Wingman UCAV on Pakistan’s Procurement Roadmap?
The world’s major air arms are now actively moving towards inducting a range of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) across various weight, capability, and role classes. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is no different. Currently, it is using numerous medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to develop its long-term drone doctrine.
Drones will not replace crewed fighters, at least not in the foreseeable future; however, drones are now poised more than ever to expand the capabilities of air arms. UAS platforms offer a more cost-effective and scalable way to grow one’s strike, surveillance, and, in the near future, air-to-air coverages than the majority of crewed fighter options. In some countries, such as Turkiye, drones are even being used to help build fixed-wing naval aviation capabilities in lieu of dedicated fighters.
The PAF is evolving as well. It has used MALE UAVs to expand its capacity for long-range munition deployment, electronic intelligence (ELINT), target acquisition, suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism (COIN/CT) missions. It recognizes that drones cost less than crewed platforms to procure and operate, while also offering key advantages in managing crew fatigue or providing more on station time.
Identifying the Need
Several factors will drive the PAF to expand its UAS fleet into jet-powered UCAVs of various size and capability classes.
First, there is – or soon will be – an actual requirement. “Second to None,” a semi-official publication of the PAF, stated that the PAF’s future UAS vision involves using drones for air-to-air operations, manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T), and “stealth operations.” The latter will involve drones, including high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) “stealth UAS with strike capabilities.”
Second, it is the most economical way to expand air power, especially in terms of offensive warfighting capability. It is not feasible to entirely rely on crewed next-generation fighter aircraft (NGFA). In fact, the emerging trend across other major air forces is to use crewed NGFAs as a focal node that would manage UCAVs in integrated air operations. This is the same model that the PAF’s primary vendor, i.e., China, is building towards; it is unlikely that the PAF will deviate from this core methodology.
Based on the developmental tracks of other countries, one can foresee the PAF pursue the following types of drones to build its own integrated air teaming system (IATS):
- A sub-200 kg decoy drone
- A 2,000 kg to 3,000 kg ‘loyal wingman’ UCAV
- A 5,000 kg to 7,000+ kg strike UCAV
Feasibility of Indigenous Development
The PAF wants its in-house bureau, the National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP), to become an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). Currently, NASTP is undertaking a number of original projects, from radars to electronic warfare (EW) systems to loitering munitions.
However, NASTP is not an experienced entity, even against the standards of Pakistan’s state-owned enterprises (SOE). That said, it is showing progress in designing original sensor solutions, so the PAF leadership’s commitment to accelerate NASTP’s capacity development seems to be bearing fruit in a number of key areas, notably sensor systems of various types.
Much of NASTP’s future viability in aircraft development will depend on Project PFX, both in terms of the JF-17 upgrade and localization initiative, and the apparent push to design a new 4.5/5-minus generation fighter for the future. The viability of the latter is far from certain.
The National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM), on the other hand, is a much more experienced SOE, especially in terms of UAS development.
From MALE UAVs like the Shahpar-II to a growing portfolio of stand-off range weapons (SOW), like the Taimur air-launched cruise missile (ALCM), AZB-series of precision-guided bombs (PGB), and a new line of ‘smart munitions’, NESCOM is better provisioned to develop advanced UAS solutions.
NESCOM is the home of Pakistan’s homegrown UAS solutions. This is not to say that its ability to design and develop modern UCAVs is certain – far from it. Rather, NESCOM has the capacity to undertake such a project and, if provided the funding and time, can reach that level. One risk factor, however, is that PAF leaders, at least currently, seem to be focused on NASTP; thus, there may be an unnecessary division of resources which, if focused, could have been provisioned towards more targeted projects, like UCAVs.
Decoy Drones
A decoy drone is generally a small UAS – no bigger than an ALCM – designed to carry out radar jamming or spoofing, reconnaissance, and precision strike (by being a small long-range cruise missile).
Examples of decoy drones include, among others, the U.S. ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoys (MALD) and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) Super Şimşek. Tangentially, some vendors – such as MBDA – chose to lean more on the munition side of the equation. For example, the forthcoming MBDA SPEAR 3 will be able to play an EW role in addition to its main purpose as a long-range weapon.
A decoy drone can be deployed from land or by air. In terms of the latter, it can be launched from fighter aircraft, drones, or even transport aircraft. The purpose of decoy drones is to clutter the air environment by creating more targets (often masking one’s high-valued fighters or larger drones), densify EW with a wide spectrum of radar and communications jamming, and serve as munitions.
These decoy drones directly draw upon target drone and cruise missile technology. In fact, one can view decoy drones as a lateral development or repurposing of existing technology inputs, not a vertical jump that requires net-new expertise and systems.
Thus, of the potential pieces of Pakistan’s IATS, a decoy drone would be the first homegrown solution to emerge. In fact, one can argue that Pakistan is already developing several decoy drones: the AZB-81LR and KaGeM V3 by NESCOM/AWC and NASTP, respectively.
The design concept of the AZB-81LR is closely modelled after the MBDA SPEAR. It is also designed with autonomous operations in mind, particularly in terms of targeting and swarming. Likewise, the KaGeM V3 is a long-range loitering munition that draws on Baykar’s autonomous operations technology stack. In one or both of these scenarios, one can see the inclusion of a EW payload for radar spoofing/jamming.
Pakistan also has several high-speed target drone platforms that can be developed into decoy drones, similar in concept to the TAI Super Şimşek. These include the Sysverve Aerospace Hadaf-series, the NASTP M-series (e.g., M-20A, M-20B, M-40, and M-55), and others by various private sector vendors, such as Integrated Dynamics. Unfortunately, private sector actors do not benefit from the same level of access to testing facilities and are generally restricted by security controls. So, their ability to design and develop a decoy drone (or even smart munitions) is artificially limited.
Thus, any decoy drone program will emerge from an SOE, potentially one from NESCOM and one from NASTP. Whether this would happen using a ‘smart munition’ or a dedicated design is unclear. The former is likely to materialize soon, and the latter is not necessary from an operational standpoint.
However, while not necessary from an operational standpoint, a dedicated decoy drone design based on a target drone could provide developmental value. For example, the vendor responsible can leverage the decoy drone as a smaller technology demonstrator for a larger loyal wingman UCAV.
Loyal Wingman UCAV
Most ‘loyal wingman UCAVs’ weigh between 2,000 kg to 3,000 kg and deliver payloads of up to 500 kg. They are primarily designed to carry either air-to-air missiles (AAM) or lightweight guided munitions.
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