On 03 May, China launched its Long March-5 heavy-lift launch vehicle from the Wenchang Space Launch Site in Hainan, a tropical island located in southern China. The vehicle was carrying the Chang’e-6 lunar probe, which has the mission of acquiring samples from the far side of the Moon. The Chang’e-6 mission is the world’s first attempt to acquire samples from the far side of the Moon.
However, the Chang’e-6 was also accompanied by payloads from a number of other countries, including Pakistan, which sent its ICUBE-Q (Qamar). The ICUBE-Q is a miniature satellite jointly developed by the Institute of Space Technology in Islamabad and the Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO). When it enters lunar orbit, the ICUBE-Q will carry out several missions aimed at collecting data about the moon’s magnetic field and taking photos of the Chang’e-6 lunar orbiter.
IST and SUPARCO developed the ICUBE-Q in 14 months. In light of the tight mass restrictions, IST and SUPARCO had to limit the ICUBE-Q’s weight to around 7 kg. It will have a lifespan of three months.
Though not as groundbreaking as India’s lunar programs, the ICUBE-Q was initiated to nurture Pakistan’s skilled labour pool for developing space-based applications in the future. Granted, Pakistan is likely not as serious as India, China, or other countries in terms of space research as a science endeavour, and in that sense, it will always remain behind others. However, the Pakistani armed forces have clearly voiced their requirements for satellites for communications, imaging, and, potentially, navigation purposes.
Off-the-shelf procurement will drive Pakistan’s satellite requirements in the near-term, but at some point, domestic production must materialize for Pakistan to sustain its space capabilities. While a modest step, the ICUBE-Q could contribute towards Pakistan’s space development infrastructure.
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Pakistan could approach its defence SATCOM requirements in one of several ways. The first avenue can involve rolling military requirements int oa dual-purpose satellite that can also support civilian applications. In this case, the military may use the forthcoming PakSat-MM1R, which is slated to launch in July 2024.
The PakSat-MM1R will leverage L-band, C-band, Ku-band, and Ka-band transponders. The PakSat-MM1R’s Ku-band coverage will reach Pakistan as well as the Arabian Sea, South Asia, and parts of East Asia. Its Ka-band coverage will support Pakistan and its adjacent border areas in India and Afghanistan. One can expect the Pakistani military to leverage the Ku-band and Ka-band transponders for their communications and drone operations needs.
Using the PakSat-MM1 is the likeliest outcome as the satellite is already in the procurement roadmap and slated to replace the PakSat-1R in a timely manner. However, there is a case for a dedicated satellite for the military’s exclusive use. This could be a smaller system equipped with X-band transponders, thereby giving the military another layer of coverage to offset the inherent drawbacks of Ka-band and Ku-band (in adverse weather conditions) and redundancy in case PakSat-MM1R is neutralized.
Imaging Satellites
The successor of the PRSS-O1 will be the PRSS-O2, which will provide improved optical imaging with a resolution of less than one meter. Pakistan also aims to complement the PRSS-O2 with the PRSS-S1, a SAR-equipped satellite. Together, both satellites would give Pakistan multispectral imaging capabilities.
These satellites would support Pakistan’s image intelligence (IMINT) capabilities, which also comprise of aerial imaging capabilities via the DB110 photo reconnaissance pod and, potentially, SAR pods equipped to drones, such as the Bayraktar Akıncı high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) drone.
With Pakistan experiencing active threats from India, Afghanistan, and Iran, building a robust situational awareness capability will be a must. Satellite-based IMINT will be indispensable, hence, Pakistan would likely prioritize the acquisition of new optical and SAR-equipped systems.
Satellite Navigation (SATNAV)
With each of Pakistan’s service arms increasingly leaning on guided long-range munitions, acquiring an independent SATNAV system would make sense. Basically, it would give Pakistan an assured capability to deploy its munitions and other assets, thus mitigating the risk of losing SATNAV access from China or the West. This is likely why Pakistan had studied the feasibility of its own SATNAV via the PSNP.
However, establishing an independent SATNAV capability would be the costliest and most complex parts of Pakistan’s satellite requirements. Given that a SATNAV constellation requires multiple satellites in orbit that would also need to be regularly stricken and replaced, the PSNP would likely necessitate indigenous SLV capabilities (hence the 2021 study of a Pakistani spaceport).
With the status of the satellite-producing PSC, spaceport, and SLV each uncertain, the SATNAV/PSNP is likely, at best, a long-term goal rather than a near-term acquisition. In its place, Pakistan will likely seek a stronger assurance from China that the BeiDou system will be made available to the Pakistani military in case of conflict with any regional party.
Sustainability Necessitates Indigenization
Though Pakistan’s space program is in its nascent stages, the inherent challenges of maintaining one’s satellite presence will drive domestic production. Pakistan will regularly need to replace its optical/SAR and communications sastellites as they reach end-of-life; constantly importing systems will strain fiscal resources and keep Pakistan vulnerable to supplier-side risks, such as embargoes. A SATNAV system would multiply these challenges, thereby requiring an end-to-end domestic capacity to design, develop, produce, and launch satellites.
Thus, the question of a domestic space program (albeit centered on strategically necessary satellites) is not a question of “if,” but “when.” Pakistan’s space program will develop, though it will not touch the same level of scientific pursuit or discovery as those of India or China.
Industry Assessment
Pakistan’s near-term satellite acquisitions will primarily involve Chinese vendors at every stage. However, Pakistan may acquire specific subsystems – such as transponders, eletro-optical equipment, and/or SAR systems – from other sources, such as Western European vendors.
In the long-term, Pakistan’s focus will shift to domestic design and production work. However, as Pakistan lacks critical industries, it would still need foreign suppliers for various key inputs, be it transponders, EO and SAR equipment, chemical propulsion and spacecraft materials.
