Pakistan’s military modernization efforts have undergone a major transformation over the past 20 years, shifting from dependency on the West for cutting-edge weapon systems to relying on the Chinese for advanced military technologies, such as new high-performance fighter aircraft, long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, and critical inputs for original programs.
In effect, China has become the supplier Pakistan had hoped America would be (and, at some points in history, America was): a market for capable but cost-effective defence solutions. The only constraint for Pakistan is its tenuous fiscal and economic health. Hence, the only realistic blocker to Pakistan’s ability to acquire such advanced weapons as its finances.
However, China’s industry can help Pakistan manage its fiscal bottlenecks in some respects. For example, in tandem with Pakistan’s growing reliance on China, the Pakistani industry is also emerging as an increasingly attractive solutions provider. For example, the country has begun offering a wide range of precision-guided munitions, like small cruise missiles.
Pakistan is not an industrial economic power. So, its capacity to locally source all of the critical inputs necessary to produce ‘smart munitions’ with autonomous targeting features is simply not there. Therefore, Pakistan is likely sourcing the critical inputs – from propulsion to electronics – from Chinese suppliers. In turn, Pakistan is using these inputs to design its own munitions and even original sensors, including a possible airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) radar.
A Receding Russia is India’s Challenge
Since the 1960s, India could lean on Russia to rapidly supply large quantities of both modern and capable equipment. The IAF used this advantage to great effect by acquiring large fleets of Su-7, MiG-21, MiG-23, MiG-27, and Su-30 fighters. Even in the periods when the PAF had cordial ties with the West (notably France), it could never match the scale the IAF could draw on in very short notice via the Russians.
However, since 2020, Russia has not been as much of a factor for India. Granted, Russia’s war with Ukraine has been a major strain on Moscow’s resources. But even prior to the war, India’s ties with Russia have not been as rosy as they were historically, at least in terms of aircraft.
In 2007, India had committed to Russia’s Su-57, its flagship NGFA. It had seemed that, like in decades past, Russia’s new stealth fighter would find its way into the IAF fighter fleet in large numbers, once again giving the IAF a rapid surge in quantity and quality.
However, India withdrew from the Su-57 in 2018, citing disagreements over technology sharing and other aspects. Thus far, observers believe that Russia built 22 Su-57s by the end of 2024; it is unclear when the fighter would enter full-scale production.
India has also been hesitant to pursue existing Russian designs, such as the Su-35 or MiG-35, for its off-the-shelf fighter tenders, such as the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender, which is the successor of the stalled Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program. Instead, it may prefer looking to the West for a solution.
Hence, the IAF effectively no longer has the option to rapidly bring in large numbers of modern Russian jets against any PAF modernization push. Ironically, the PAF may have acquired such an advantage through China’s rise as a leading industrial power. For example, if China secures several overseas J-35 buyers, it may expand the overall production capacity and, in turn, allow for customers like the PAF to acquire aircraft relatively quickly.
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