On 28 May, Pakistan celebrated the 26th anniversary of its Chagai-I and Chagai-II nuclear tests, which it carried out in 1998 in response to India’s Pokhran-II tests. Since becoming a nuclear power, Pakistan’s program has evolved through the inclusion of miniature warheads as well as an expanding line of launch platforms, especially airborne and sea-based systems.
However, the security environment in South Asia has also changed since 1998. At that time, Pakistan’s security leadership may have assumed that the nuclear umbrella would be sufficient enough to thwart an Indian ingression into Pakistani territory. But in 2019, the Indian government ordered the Indian Air Force (IAF) to carry out air strikes across the Line of Control (LoC). The resulting Balakot Incident led to an air skirmish between Pakistan and India, which ended with a confirmed loss of one IAF MiG-21bis and IAF Mi-17 helicopter.
The Balakot Incident showed Pakistan’s security leadership two things:
First, the nuclear deterrence was no longer enough to dissuade India from engaging in cross-border strikes. Granted, the incident involved India striking non-state actors, but it escalated into a skirmish with all the potential to expand into a full-scale war. Therefore, the deterrence element did not work; therefore, Pakistan saw that its nuclear element needed to be paired with a conventional element that can respond to or intercept low-intensity Indian strikes.
Second, a strong conventional response – such as the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) counter-operation, “Swift Retort” – dampened India’s willingness to engage in future Balakot-type operations. Basically, future Balakot-type operations would guarantee a Pakistani response and, in turn, erode the integrity of India’s border areas.
Hence, one can expect Pakistan to approach deterrence in a holistic manner that encompasses both nuclear and conventional means. In fact, the growth of conventional capabilities would support Pakistan’s nuclear program by resulting in new delivery systems and platforms.
Stay up to date with the latest Pakistani defence news with reliable research and accurate forecasting
Click Here
Get Timely Pakistani Defence News
Unmatched depth on the JF-17, Project Azm, Hangor submarine, Babur, Fatah, and more. Be the first to know about Pakistan's next-gen UAVs, USVs, and emerging platforms.
