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Pakistan’s UAV Development, Deployment, and Future
Author Profile: Syed Aseem Ul Islam is PhD candidate at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA, specializing in adaptive and model-predictive flight control systems. He received his bachelor’s degree in aerospace engineering from the Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad, and his master’s degree in flight dynamics and control from the University of Michigan.
The importance of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the modern battlespace is widely recognized in our times. With the success that UAVs have had in military operations in Libya and Syria, the importance of UAVs has become abundantly clear to today’s planners.
Pakistan is no exception. Pakistani defence planners have had the foresight to start substantive UAV programs in the late 2000s, the fruits of which are apparent today.
This article will detail the development of Pakistan’s UAV program, i.e., the roles it played thus far, and what roles it could play in the future. However, due to the secretive nature of these programs, some portions of this article are limited to educated inferences, and not conclusive facts.
To appreciate the importance of UAVs, we must analyze the numerous roles UAVs could assume for each of Pakistan’s service arms. The most important of these is intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). UAVs are especially suited to ISR roles as they can autonomously loiter over areas for extended time-periods, and with minimal exposure to detection (mainly due to their relatively small sizes).
Another important role for UAVs is target designation through lasers (or ‘lazing’). Before the widespread use of UAVs, militaries had lazed targets using specially-trained infantry on the ground (e.g., Joint Terminal Attack Controllers or JTAC), targeting pods onboard aircraft armed with laser-guided bombs (LGB), or via a dedicated targeting aircraft that had to remain on station till the time the target was hit.
However, with the induction of UAVs, militaries can detect and laze targets safely and reliably (with much reduced risk to human operators), and for extended periods of time. It appears that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) had used UAVs for ISR, targeting, and precision-strike through the 2010s.
UAVs can also be used as signal intelligence (SIGINT) platforms, i.e., gather emissions of an adversary’s radar systems (and build a countermeasure threat library). However, it does not appear Pakistan currently has UAVs large enough to carry SIGINT payloads, at least at this time.
Separately, UAVs can also serve a critical maritime surveillance role. Unfortunately, it seems that Pakistan Navy’s (PN) UAV programs are not synergized with those of the Pakistan Army (PA) and PAF. Furthermore, maritime surveillance drones tend to be larger for greater endurance and larger payloads, and Pakistan currently does not produce UAVs in this class. Thus, the PN is predisposed to inducting UAVs of this size.
The backbone of Pakistan’s drone fleet comprises by three UAV platforms: the Leonardo Falco, NESCOM Burraq, and GIDS Shahpar. Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Mujahid Anwar Khan visited PAF Murid Airbase on 1st July 2020 and was photographed with all three UAVs.
Leonardo Falco
The Falco is Pakistan’s first medium-altitude, medium-endurance UAV. According to Pakistan Aeronautical Complex’s (PAC), it assembled the first eight Falco UAVs from imported kits in 2008. PAC adds that it also acquired the capability to locally manufacture these UAVs.
Therefore, one can assume that the Falco has been in service with the PAF since at least 2008, and the local production of the drone started sometime in 2008 to 2009. With a potential production output of four to eight aircraft per year, anywhere from 44 to 88 Falco UAVs may be in service as of 2020.
The Falco has an endurance of eight to fourteen hours, a payload of 100 kg, a data-link range of 200 km, and a wingspan of 7.3 m. It is primarily used for ISR, but it can be fitted with equipment for supporting target acquisition and guidance.
A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in the form of the Leonardo PicoSAR is also available for the Falco. But it is not clear if the PAF is using the PicoSAR onboard its Falco UAVs. Interestingly, a patch for the Falco crew was revealed in a promotional video of the PAF in 2015, which confirms that the Falco UAVs are used for ISR, so the use of SAR is possible. It appears that PAF is the primary operator of Falco, and it is operating it out of PAF Mushaf and PAF Murid.
NESCOM Burraq
Pakistan’s sole unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) is the Burraq, at least in operational service. The origin of the Burraq is unclear. The Burraq appears to be a licensed variant of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) CH-3, but with some local inputs, such as the Global Industrial Defense Solutions (GIDS) Zumer-1EP electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) turret.
The Burraq’s primary armament is the Barq laser-guided air-to-ground missile (AGM). The PAF and PA inducted the Burraq in November 2013, but the drone was rumoured to have been in service since 2011. With a plausible production output of five to ten aircraft per year, Pakistan could have 35 to 70 Burraq UCAVs in service as of 2020.
The Burraq offers an endurance of 12 hours, a payload of 80 kg, and a data-link range of 200 km. With a wingspan of 8 m, it is also Pakistan’s largest drone. Pakistan uses the Burraq for surveillance, target designation, and missile strikes.
Interestingly, the Burraq’s strike capability was first publicly acknowledged on 13th March 2015, while the first strike on militant targets was reported in Tirah Valley on 18th March 2015, merely five days later.
Any further strikes by the Burraq were not publicized, even though it is likely that more had taken place due to the induction of a new capability and the ongoing campaign against terrorists/non-state actors.
The Burraq, together with the Shahpar, was also flown in the joint-services parade on 23rd March 2015, carrying its payload of Burq missiles.
Curiously, there seems to be some controversy regarding publicly declaring the armed nature of Burraq as shown by the rather clumsy removal of the Burq from posters for the Burraq at IDEAS 2018. This may have been done as advertising a UCAV design, originally acquired with Chinese input (be it the whole UAV system or its weaponization), may not have sat well with Chinese authorities due to MTCR considerations.
GIDS has back tracked on the Burraq UAV being armed, the day it was launched. So much so that the co sent people around scribbling out the missile being fired on all the marketing material! I saw this on one of the big posters. How bizarre! @amrmagazine pic.twitter.com/wjSfd9EUV7
— Alan Warnes (@warnesyworld) November 27, 2018
The Burraq UAVs have been seen with two types of serial numbers: those starting with BQ and those starting with BQA, followed by possibly the years of manufacturing. The serials BQ 1-10-103, BQA 1-14-101, BQ 18-201 have been spotted. It may be speculated that aircraft with serials starting in BQA are the armed versions capable of carrying Burq missiles in service with PA, while aircraft with serials starting in BQ are ISR version in service with PAF.
GIDS Shahpar
The Global Industrial Defence Solutions (GIDS) Shahpar holds the notable position of being the first indigenously designed medium-altitude, medium endurance UAV in Pakistan.
The value of this UAV cannot be understated as the successful operationalization of this system brought with it valuable experience in the design and implementation of flight control systems, flight-software, and flight-hardware to Pakistani engineers.
This development of local capability would not have been possible with the license production of foreign designs. Future successful UAV and UCAV programs can be expected to be built on top of the experience from Shahpar.
Shahpar was officially inducted into the PAF and PA in November 2013 together with Burraq. As Shahpar is a local product, it can be assumed to be cheaper to manufacture, and with a higher annual production rate. Assuming 10 to 20 aircraft are produced annually, 70 to 140 Shahpar UAVs can be expected to be in service in 2020.
Shahpar has an endurance of 7 hours, a payload of 50 kg, a data-link range of 250 km, and a wingspan of 6.6 m, making it the smallest drone in comparison to the Falco and Burraq. Shahpar has the lowest payload and lowest endurance of the three UAVs. Of note is the data-link range of 250 km, which is higher than that of the Falco and Burraq. This can be attributed to a higher power transceiver with a heat-sink seen on Shahpar. Shahpar’s primary user appears to be the PAF, which bases it at PAF Murid.
Even though Shahpar lacks the endurance of Falco and Burraq, and the payload capability to carry missiles, its usefulness lies in the fact that Pakistan can cheaply produce the drone in large numbers. It also has a noticeable advantage in data-link range over the Falco and Burraq.
Therefore, Shahpar’s primary role can be assumed to be ISR and target designation. Shahpar UAVs are seen with serial numbers starting with SHP and SHA followed by year of production. The serials SHA-11-802, SHP-10-604, SHP-13-601, SHP-15-626 have been spotted. A comparison of the similar serial convention of Burraq and Shahpar suggest that Pakistan build many more Shahpar than Burraqs.
Analysis
As a laudable policy decision, it appears that planners in Pakistan have decided against buying large numbers of foreign drones, choosing instead to manufacture foreign designs locally, or developing completely local designs. Unfortunately, the PN seems to be “doing its own thing” with its purchase of ScanEagle and Luna NG UAVs. A squadron of locally manufactured Uqaab UAVs is in service with the PN, but it is unclear what role these play. A possible reason for this disconnect is the specialized UAV needs of PN.
Naval UAVs need to be either large with long endurance so that they can operate from the coast, deep into the sea, and for extended periods, or they need to be small, efficient, and with special provisions like catapults or vertical-take-off-and-landing (VTOL), so that they can be launched and recovered from ships. Therefore, specialized UAVs need to be developed for the PN to generate the benefits of common and interoperable platforms and economies of scale.
A crucial limitation of all Pakistan’s UAVs is the data-link range, which in the absence of satellite links, is limited to 200-250 km. This limits the operational range of these UAVs, which must be operated around air force bases housing these UAVs or around specially prepared UAV ground stations.
Not surprisingly, this can have limitations on the employment of UAVs in war-time, and the enemy is likely to exploit this constraint. The obvious next step for Pakistan’s UAV program is the development of satellite links for its UAVs, which requires satellite coverage of Pakistan in the Ku (microwave) band.
SUPARCO has taken steps in this direction with the launch of PAKSAT-1R (in 2011) and the planned launch of PAKSAT-MM1 (not to be confused with PAKSAT-MM1 formerly known as Asiasat-4 which is currently holding the geo-stationary slot for Pakistan).
As SATCOM (satellite communication) systems are large and require large amounts of power, larger UAVs are needed to carry them. The distinctive bump seen on a lot of large drones is for making room for the satellite dish. The inclusion of SATCOM will allow the deployment of UAVs from anywhere in Pakistan, and deep into the Arabian Sea, especially by the PN. Thus, it should not be surprising if new, larger UAVs with SATCOM are revealed in the near future, as they should have been in development; especially since the last new UAV was inducted in 2013.
Considering the length of time passed since the induction of the first batches of locally produced UAVs — such as Falco, Burraq, and Shahpar — satellite imagery evidence, and serial number analysis, it can be surmised that large numbers (approximately up to 100 of each type) of these UAVs are in service with the PAF and PA. Furthermore, deployment techniques and doctrines have been made and refined over the years thanks to the experience.
An interesting conclusion can be made from the shooting down of the friendly-fire incident involving the Indian Air Force (IAF) helicopter on 27th February 2019, which was mistaken for a Pakistani UAV. It is likely that India had feared a UCAV strike, which is a strong indication of the fact that even local commanders in the IAF are wary of a Pakistani UAV threat, even if Pakistan chooses to barely advertise its capability. Any future full-scale conflict between India and Pakistan is bound to see a large-scale use of UAVs for target designation and missile strikes by Pakistan, to the surprise of many casual observers.
