Pakistan’s next – near-term – steps for bridging airpower gap Plus

In his final address to Air Headquarters, the previous Chief of Air Staff (CAS) of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman, outlined the PAF’s long-term vision in terms of its force structure and goal for parity with the Indian Air Force (IAF). First, the CAS acknowledged that there was a gap in terms of ‘high-tech’ combat aircraft – alluding to the forthcoming JF-17 Block-III as a solution to that problem. Second, the CAS stated that the PAF has a 400-strong fighter fleet, with its long-term objective being to maintain a quantitative parity of 1:1.35 to 1:1.75 with the IAF.

Interestingly, the concept of a 400-strong fighter fleet is not recent, it appears to have been a PAF force objective since at least 1999. Speaking to Flight International in 1999, then PAF CAS ACM Pervaiz Mehdi Qureishi outlined that the PAF had planned for “around 80 high-technology fighters, about 150-160 good strike/penetration aircraft and 150 medium-technology air defence aircraft.”[1] Granted, the context is important. ACM Qureishi’s planning predates current technology dynamics, such as active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radars becoming standard subsystems. Thus, ACM Qureishi’s understanding of a ‘high-tech’ system is relative to his period, it would be different today.

For example, the context of the time was that the Mirage III/5s, a number of which were undergoing the Retrofit of Strike Element (ROSE) upgrade, would assume the strike and penetration role envisaged by ACM Qureishi. Indeed, the Mirage ROSE I/II/III now form the PAF’s key strike units – equipped with the Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile and H-2 and H-4 stand-off weapon (SOW). Compared to what the PAF had at the time, the ROSE was a markedly improved strike asset. Likewise, the F-16 – i.e. the Mid-Life Update and the Block-52 – were the marquee variants of the Fighting Falcon design, forming the PAF’s idea of ‘high-tech’ in 1999. The JF-17 was to be the ‘medium-technology air defence aircraft’.

Under the Armed Forces Development Program – 2019 (AFFDP-2019), the PAF (under later leaderships) settled upon procuring at least 150 JF-17s, 100 F-16 MLU and Block-52+ and 36 additional aircraft, which would have been the J-10 had a collapse in funding not occurred in 2009-2013. Today, the understanding or definition of what constitutes a ‘high-tech’ fighter in the PAF has shifted due to current realities, such as certain technologies, such as AESA radars, becoming a necessary staple in a modern combat aircraft. However, the core objectives, including the tiers (e.g. ‘high-tech’ and ‘medium tech’) do appear to be standard between successive PAF leaderships, and along with that, a 400-strong fleet.

Granted, the perennial challenge of shoring-up funding has dampened the PAF’s ability to sustain a high-tech edge, but on the optimistic side, the JF-17 has also changed PAF expectations. In 1999, the PAF had envisaged the JF-17 as a ‘medium-technology air defence aircraft’ – i.e. an aircraft that would replace the F-7P and A-5/Mirage III & 5 in point air defence and ground attack roles, respectively. However, the JF-17 has emerged as a much more versatile platform; from its ability to deploy beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM), SOWs and anti-ship missiles (AShM) to being equipped with many of the same kinds of subsystems found on ‘high-tech’ jets, it is providing more than just quantitative depth.