Pakistan Army Inducts HQ-9/P Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missile System

On 14 October 2021, the Pakistan Army (PA) announced that it inducted the Chinese HQ-9/P long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system.

According to the tri-services’ media arm, Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), the HQ-9/P joined the PA’s ‘Comprehensive Layered Integrated Air Defence’ (CLIAD) system. The ISPR added that the HQ-9/P offers a range of “over 100 kilometres” with “Single Short Kill Probability.”

Analysis

Pakistan was never known for heavily investing in SAM systems, certainly not to the scale of its neighbours India and Iran, or most other major military powers for that matter.

With the exception of a limited HQ-2 deployment in the 1980s, the bulk of Pakistan’s SAMs did not offer more than 20-25 km in range. This, in comparison to India’s arsenal of Russian-origin S-300s and Buk SAMs, exposed Pakistan’s lack of interest in SAMs in the 1990s and 2000s.

This is not to say Pakistan was negligent. Pakistan’s coffers are not as full as India’s, so it frequently makes trade-offs when prioritizing programs. If anything, Pakistan likely understood the value of strong ground-based air defence (GBAD) development. However, it focused on other areas first.

Pakistan bought offensive, stand-off range weapons (SOW), electronic countermeasures (ECM), airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, and multirole fighter aircraft. Pakistan used each of these key assets in its response to India’s Balakot strikes in 2019, and it was pleased with the results.

However, decision-makers across the tri-services earmarked funds for significant air defence investments for both land and sea. The HQ-9/P is the culmination of that initiative. In just the last 10 years, Pakistan’s SAM coverages extend beyond 100 km, completely outdoing decades of narrow reach.

But the most interesting aspect of Pakistan’s sudden air defence investment is its driver. In the past, air defence was the exclusive domain of the PAF. It had been the PAF that laid-out an air defence ground environment (ADGE) with SAMs, such as the Crotale and Spada-2000 Plus.

However, this new chapter is the story of Pakistan Army Air Defence Command.

The HQ-9/P induction follows several years of reports about Pakistan expressing interest in long-range SAMs. In fact, Pakistan’s initial interest in China’s long-range SAMs dates to the early 2000s when it sought the FT-2000. The FT-2000 was an export-oriented variant of the HQ-9 tipped with an anti-radiation seeker. It seemed to have been the first export version of the HQ-9. The FT-2000 had a range of 100 km.

Ultimately, Pakistan did not acquire the FT-2000. However, there were signs that a major air defence deal with China was underway in recent years. In 2016, a delegation of two major Chinese defence contractors – China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) and China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CPMIEC) – visited Pakistan. The then Pakistani government said it planned on making a ‘decision for induction’ based on a ‘complete proposal’ from CPMIEC.

In December 2018, news reports emerged of Pakistan showing interest in the FD-2000. Quoting a Pakistan Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP) official, Russian News Agency TASS reported that the country may acquire three or four FD-2000 systems. While there was no follow-up to this news report, it seemed that Pakistan was working towards inducting a long-range SAM in the near future.

The HQ-9/P now follows the induction of the LY-80 medium-range SAM and FM-90 short-range SAM.

The PA inducted the FM-90 in 2015. The FM-90 is the export variant of the HQ-7B, which reportedly offers a range of up to 15 km. It uses electro-optical and infrared (EO/IR) tracking for guidance, but the PA is also using a radar with the system for target detection and situational awareness.

Following the FM-90, the PA inducted the export variant of the Chinese HQ-16, i.e., LY-80, in March 2017. The PA operates at least nine LY-80 systems, which it ordered in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. The base LY-80 has a range of 40 km, but a revised version extends its reach to 70 km. It is not known which of these the PA operates. However, a source told Quwa that the 70 km-range version can work from the PA’s LY-80 set-up (without the need for new infrastructure). Thus, the PA may have both versions.

In regard to the HQ-9/P, the ISPR revealed that it has a range of at least 100 km. However, the PA did not showcase the launch vehicle of its HQ-9/P. Thus, the exact version of the PA’s build is not known, but the HQ-9/A may not be the base FD-2000. The PA terms the HQ-9/P a “strategic asset,” so it would odd that it will reveal its range (when it has not even disclosed the range of the LY-80). Moreover, the PA is calling its system the ‘HQ-9/P.’ It would normally use the export designations of its Chinese equipment (e.g., FM-90, LY-80, and VT-4). So, if the PA was using the FD-2000, it would simply term it as the FD-2000.

Thus, the HQ-9/P could potentially be something in-between the FD-2000 and the newly revealed HQ-9BE – the latter has a range of 260 km plus limited anti-ballistic missile (ABM) capabilities. Thus, it would not be surprising if the HQ-9/P actually has a range in the area of 200 km, if not more.

The PA did not disclose how many HQ-9/P systems it ordered or is planning to acquire. But the reported figure by the MoDP official – i.e., three or four systems – seems plausible.

Collectively, these SAMs form the PA’s ‘Comprehensive Layered Integrated Air Defence’ (CLIAD) umbrella.

Under CLIAD, the HQ-9/P creates an anti-air threat for high-flying aircraft at long ranges. The effective range of the HQ-9/P diminishes with low-flying aircraft due to the Earth’s curvature. The curvature creates gaps or blind spots that low-flying objects can exploit to avoid coming under the coverage of the HQ-9/P.

However, this is where short-range, lower-altitude radars – i.e., gap-filling radars – and short-to-medium-range SAMs like LY-80 come into play. Enemy aircraft that fly low to exploit the HQ-9/P’s gaps will have to contend with the LY-80. Thus, the PA’s SAM composition would likely have the HQ-9/P within Pakistan’s ‘core’ (i.e., 100 km away from the border), but have LY-80s stationed at various points closer to the border to limit low-altitude room for enemy aircraft.

The FM-90 could also play role in filling gaps, but of the LY-80. However, the FM-90 is a mobile system, so it might be found with moving armoured formations or artillery deployments as well. If the FM-90 is the lowest denominator of the CLIAD, it would be the most numerous system in the PA’s inventory. In turn, it would be available for both supporting the CLIAD (which is presumably designed to defend fixed targets) and mobile deployments alike. However, the PA has been seeking a new mobile short-to-medium-range SAM since 2016. The Russian Pantsir-series and MBDA Italy Spada 2000 were both options at the time. In the long-term, the FM-90 might not be a forward deployment asset, but a mobile SAM for the CLIAD.

Besides SAMs, the PA also revealed its own air defence control or management centre – i.e., the ‘Centre of Integrated Air Defence Battle Management’ (CIADBAM).

The PA inaugurated the CIADBAM in September 2021. According to the ISPR, the CIADBAM provides “an integrated environment for synchronised and effective articulation of air defence battle” linking “top tier of command down to [the] individual system.” The CIADBAM also has a simulator environment for internal scenario testing and planning. Based on the footage released by the ISPR, the disclosed facilities appear to be proof-of-concept or pilot sites (like the PAF’s Space Command).

However, the existence of CLIAD and CIADBAM clearly reveal the PA’s effort to build a comprehensive air defence set-up in parallel to the PAF’s. Granted, the PN could also potentially build a comparably robust IADS, but it operates in a distinct – and distant – theater at sea. Moreover, the PN and PAF have made it clear that they will closely collaborate on managing air threats and air combat scenarios. The PA seems to be moving in its own direction, but the reasons for it are unclear.

For example, did the PA set-up a redundant IADS to the PAF? Or did the PA and PAF establish new Areas of Responsibility (AOR) that have assigned the ground-based air defence role to the PA? In this case, would the PAF avoid acquiring new SAMs and, instead, let the PA own the air defence space?

Currently, the PAF’s air defence investments are not fully known. It has certainly invested in new gap filler radars to supplant its Mobile Pulse-Doppler Radars (MPDR). However, the PAF’s primary SAM is the MBDA Italy Spada-2000 Plus, a short-to-medium-range system with a range of 20-25 km. In February 2021, the previous PAF Chief of Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Mujahid Anwar Khan, reportedly told local news outlets that the PAF was planning to induct a new air defence system in 2021. It is unclear if the CAS made this statement with reference to the PA’s HQ-9/P, or a different acquisition.

The answer could depend on each service arm’s goals. For example, with its air defence set-up, the Army is likely focused on protecting key installations. However, who is owning the border areas?

Ultimately, a key focus should be deterring another Balakot-type episode. One aspect of this deterrence is building offensive air-to-air and air-to-surface capabilities, situational awareness, and the ability to fight in the electromagnetic space through electronic warfare (EW) and ECM. The PAF traditionally invested in these areas and, for the most part, will continue to focus on what it trusts the most.

The other aspect is deterring the IAF in an actual attempt. The latter could necessitate new SAMs to cover low-altitude gaps and, potentially, try cutting into the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) high-altitude flexibility (which can cut the effective range of gliding stand-off weapons if they are launched at lower altitudes). In this case, the land-based version of the Albatros-NG – i.e., the Common Anti-Air Modular Missile-Extended Range (CAMM-ER) – could be a viable option for the PAF.