The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its research on worldwide defence procurement activities from 2013 to 2017. SIPRI found that the Middle East had fuelled the bulk – i.e. 49% — of US armament exports, which accounted 34% of all arms sales in 2013-2017. The US was followed by Russia, France, Germany and China as the second, third, fourth and fifth leading exporters, respectively.
Pakistan was the ninth largest arms importer in that period, with China being its leading supplier (and with Pakistan being China’s top customer). SIPRI also found that Pakistan’s arms imports in 2013-2017 dropped compared to 2008-2012, despite a period of significant uptake in India’s procurement, including big-ticket imports from the US, France, Russia and Israel.
In terms of SIPRI’s technical observations, there are many caveats. First, the opaqueness of Pakistani arms procurement processes – especially in terms of tendering or releasing bids – makes it difficult to verify its specifics, such as procurement of munitions and subsystems. Second, some of SIPRI’s details are, at best, to be interpreted as tentative details, not firm contracts put into effect.
For example, SIPRI has listed the purchase of four MILGEM corvettes from Turkey in Pakistan’s trade register along with plans to procure 76mm guns from Leonardo and MTU Friedrichshafen diesel engines to arm and power the ship, respectively. However, the MILGEM’s main contractor – Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik (STM) – has yet to announce such an event.
However, the details aside, SIPRI’s overarching solutions correspond with observable trends. Since 2013, Pakistan had finalized few big-ticket orders – among them the purchase of eight submarines from China and three airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft from Sweden – and relied on incremental batch orders from its domestic industry to resolve its near-term defence needs.
Periods of low expenditure followed by high-spending periods is not new to Pakistan. For example, there had been a dearth of big-ticket arms purchases in the 1990s, but these were followed by a spate of them – i.e. 18 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block-52+, Erieye AEW&C, F-22P frigates and others – in the 2000s.
However, worsening structural economic woes looming until at least 2019 and a broad shift in national security messaging – which had favoured ‘sub-conventional warfare’ with lesser focus on conventional threats – can, rightfully, be viewed as indicators for a consecutive ‘down period’ in big-ticket procurement.
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