Analysis: The Case for Pakistan Procuring the FC-31 Gyrfalcon Plus

Prologue

The following is an analysis examining if the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) FC-31 Gyrfalcon, an export-oriented ‘fifth-generation’ fighter platform, is a suitable fit for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). This is an extension of a piece written on Quwa (linked at the end of the article) – Discussion: Could the FC-31 factor into Pakistan’s Next-Gen Fighter Plans? – but differs significantly thanks to new information given to the public by the PAF leadership as well as a different analytical approach. Unlike the Discussion piece, I opted to analyze the FC-31 in direct context of the PAF’s present force organization (e.g. looking at what specific platforms the PAF could look to replace), the actual threats faced by the PAF today and future, and tried to identify how the PAF is viewing the FGF concept as a whole and seeing how the FC-31 can fit.

Project Azm: Pakistan’s FGF

Officially, the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) fifth-generation fighter (FGF) program is being executed under ‘Project Azm’ (resolve). Under the PAF’s long-term plan, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) Kamra has been entrusted to manufacture a FGF as well as active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radars. In the inaugural announcement of Project Azm, the PAF Chief of Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman stated, “[the] initiative of Project Azam was thus encouraged, which is the designing of the 5th-generation fighter aircraft.”[1] Ostensibly entrusted with Project Azm is the Aviation Design Institute (AvDI) at PAC Kamra, which – as per the Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP) – was established to “spearhead design and development activity … [of] state of the art next generation (sic) aerospace vehicles.” Recently on 07 December 2017, ACM Sohail Aman announced that “Pakistan is engaged with Chinese experts in manufacturing the next generation aircraft,” adding, “it will take five years to initiate the production.”

The PAF CAS did not mention a specific platform, be it the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) FC-31 or otherwise. However, ACM Sohail Aman is known for heavily – and overtly – emphasizing aspects such as “indigenous development” and independence from foreign suppliers. In an April 2017 interview with Bol Narratives, ACM Aman stated: “We are integrating our technology with friendly countries, including Turkey. We are thinking of producing the next-generation aircraft by pooling resources with them. For this, the basic framework and agreements have been made,” adding, “We are also collaborating with Turkey for developing a next generation aircraft.”[2] Again, the CAS did not mention a specific platform, though it should be noted that the Turkish Undersecretariat of Defence Industries (SSM) invited Pakistan to participate in the TFX, though to what extent and for what purpose is unclear.[3] That said, in May 2017 British aviation journalist Alan Warnes, a person in-contact with the PAF CAS, said the TFX, “in near future … likely to figure in PAF”s new generation fighter aircraft requirement.”[4]

However, in neither scenario (TFX or FC-31) did the PAF itself explicitly state its intended avenue. With its overt call for ‘indigenous design’ in mind, there are several plausible outcomes. First, procuring the FC-31 off-the-shelf with a deep level of transfer-of-technology to undertake local manufacturing, including full access to electronic subsystems – especially AESA radar – for unencumbered integration choices. Second, partnering with Turkish Aerospace Industries on the TFX – or specific TFX inputs (such as radar and avionics) –  in-exchange for the aforementioned gains. Third, undertaking an original design with Chinese assistance, which could enable Pakistan to own most of the resulting design (commensurate with and proportional to Pakistan’s funding contribution). Each one of those scenarios could plausibly fit with the CAS’ statements, it will ultimately be time that will provide confirmation.