Analysis: Is Pakistan’s Next Strategic Focus on Boosting Munitions Output? Plus

For countries seeking to maintain a credible measure of conventional deterrence, the Russia-Ukraine War has highlighted the importance of controlling one’s munitions supply-line from the design level all the way to production output. As depleting munition stocks became problematic, Ukraine had to wait on approvals to simply secure the necessary technology it needed to resist Russia, e.g., surface-to-air missiles (SAM), or stand-off range weapons (SOW), artillery shells, rockets, and so on.

Perhaps, then, Pakistan’s growing interest in developing its own SAMs and even air-to-air missiles (AAM) reflects this emerging reality, i.e., in war, one cannot take any external supplier for granted. Thus, one must maintain a robust munitions development and production capability to not just keep its war effort going, but potentially, establish some credible level of conventional deterrence. How could one deter an enemy from attacking if the enemy makes depleting their adversary’s limited munitions stocks a strategic goal?

To its credit, Pakistan took some ownership of this issue a long while back, most notably through its heavy investment in mass-producing small arms ammunition, tank and artillery shells, and unguided rockets. But now, the country is expanding its focus towards locally manufacturing guided munitions at scale, both for its domestic needs and, potentially, export. Projects like the Harbah NG anti-ship cruising missile (ASCM), and Taimur air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) headline this effort.

However, offering a portfolio of designs is just one part of the equation. Ukraine’s struggles are exposing the necessity of having a reliable munitions production capability, i.e., churning out guided missiles at scale in both peacetime and wartime. Pakistan’s traditional calculus pegged a conventional war with India lasting several weeks, at which point it would either be resolved at the table or, if needed, escalate into a nuclear exchange (i.e., mutually assured destruction or MAD).

But that calculus was based on Pakistan’s experiences up to that point. The nature of conventional war is also prone to change, especially as new technologies enter the mix and/or doctrines evolve. For example, India formulated a strategy (“Cold Start”) of using rapidly mobilizable land and air assets to quickly enter, capture, and hold Pakistani territory. Pakistan had harped on resorting to nuclear weapons if India breaks a certain threshold, like eroding Pakistan’s conventional capabilities.