US Targets Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program Plus

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On 18 December, the U.S. State Department announced that the United States imposed sanctions on four entities it alleges are supporting Pakistan’s efforts to develop long-range ballistic missiles.

These entities are:

• The National Development Complex (NDC), a state-owned enterprise (SOE) the State Department says is responsible for developing Pakistan’s Shaheen-series of ballistic missiles as well as various missile-related items, such as missile-testing equipment.
• Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, a company the U.S. alleges helped facilitate the procurement of equipment to support NDC’s missile development programs.
• Affiliates International, another company the U.S. alleges helped manage the procurement of equipment relevant to missile development for NDC and other Pakistani weapons SOEs
• Rockside Enterprise, a company the U.S. says worked with NDC to acquire and supply critical equipment for Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile programs.

Interestingly, this set was the second wave of sanctions targeting Pakistan’s ballistic missile program in just this year. In April, the State Department also sanctioned four companies – three Chinese and one Belarussian – for supplying “missile-applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.”

These companies were:

• Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant, a Belarussian company the U.S. alleges of supplying chassis for Pakistan’s ballistic missile transporter erector launcher (TEL) systems.
• Xi’an Longde Technology Development Company, a Chinese entity the U.S. alleges has been supplying filament winding machines meant for manufacturing rocket motor cases.
• Tianjin Creative Source International Trade Co. Ltd., which the U.S. accuses of providing stir welding equipment used for propellant tanks and linear accelerator systems.
• Granpect Company Limited, which the U.S. says worked with Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Commission (SUPARCO) and NDC to source testing equipment for large diameter rocket motors.

Pakistan is intent on improving its second-strike capabilities and, in turn, pursuing a naval or sea-based deterrence capability. This naval deterrence capability could materialize through either a nuclear-powered submarine or a “hybrid” solution involving a conventionally-powered boat armed with submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM) and/or SLBMs.

In this context, a Pakistani SLBM would need to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) to cover India. However, because a submarine is a mobile system in that it can theoretically position itself closer to the U.S. or U.S. targets in Pakistan’s regional vicinity, the IRBM would be a threat to the U.S.

Pakistan is also pursuing hypersonic weapons, likely with the aim of trying to stress or overcome India’s anti-ballistic missile (ABM) shield. Currently, the only publicly known hypersonic program is the P282, an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). However, Pakistan’s efforts could expand to other areas, like HGVs.

The U.S. could be concerned that the underlying technology necessary to produce a short-range ASBM may be scaled to develop a much longer-ranged application. Likewise, the development of HGVs could also require the same technologies and development infrastructure for ICBMs and IRBMs.

Likewise, Pakistan is also pursuing its own space program consisting of both domestically designed and manufactured satellites, and a satellite-launch vehicle (SLV). With Pakistan envisioning a constellation of its own imaging, communications, and potentially navigation satellites. With Pakistan’s rocket technology being generally dated, even a light-lift vehicle could necessitate ‘large diameter’ rockets.